한국의 경제뉴스통신사 - NSP통신.

[서울=NSP통신] 임창섭 기자 = 중국 경기 둔화 및 브라질 터키 이집트 등 국가들의 정정불안, 美 양적완화 축소 시사에 따른 신흥국 부채의 금리 민감도 확대 등으로 한국을 포함한 신흥국 부채 문제에 대한 우려가 고조되고 있음.

중국 경제 성장 둔화로 인해 원자재 시장이 크게 동요하고 있으며 금융 규제 강화로 각국의 은행들도 어려움을 겪고 있음.

더욱이 과거 신흥국에 몰렸던 해외 자금들이 5월말 이후 대거 이탈하며 채권 가격은 하락세를 시현하고 있음.

[ 원문 ]

“There has been a backup in interest rates across EM debt and unfortunately Korea is still lumped in with EM economies and markets. EM debt sentiment has clearly turned around because 1) there is concern about China slowing down, 2) the development of malaise attributed to the new middle class wondering ‘Now what?’ causing political angst in places like Brazil, Turkey and Egypt, 3) the sensitivity of EM debt to interest rate increases connected to the discussion of tapering off.

All these things have cut into the hunger of investors for extra yield.

Commodity producers are hit by the slowing in China. The increasingly tightening regulatory climate has hit banks in many economies.

The stampede into EM debt reversed in late-May; Wall Street was caught long with many investment banking deals to launch and so began to dump risk.

Nobody wanted to walk in front of the risk, so prices fell. There is still no consensus on how China will work out.

Slowing growth is generally expected there, but if that means that annual growth could be about 7%, then one or two quarters could be about 5%.

The new regime in China is very comfortable squeezing out excesses; it is skewed toward popping bubbles, eliminating excesses.

This is quite a turnaround from the very much pro-growth regime which preceded them.

Finally, I’m very concerned about Japan’s helicopter destroyer, which is really a large aircraft carrier.”

<정리 = 국제금융센터 남경옥 연구원

임창섭 NSP통신 기자, news1@nspna.com
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